RRevBench
/ Board/TSLA
Today
$0.00/ $1.00

TSLA

Consumer Discretionary
Tesla
$369.57
−2.96% today
RecommendationNot advice
33%confidence
BUY
Conviction
Low
Score
+0.23
ML prob
76%
Risk sizingHigh risk
Max position
3%
Stop loss
6%
elevated volatility (48.2% ann.)weak combined signal (+0.23)negative 21-day return (-6.8%)significant 1-year drawdown (-29.9%)short holding period (5 days)
Strategist thesis

The buy signal on TSLA stems from positive ML and fundamental indicators, but negative technical momentum and slightly bearish news sentiment create a mixed picture. With high volatility and a short 5-day window, any edge is fragile and could easily be overwhelmed by noise. This is a low-conviction call in a challenging market environment.

Counterarguments

Negative technical signals and a recent -6.8% 21-day return suggest downward momentum may persist.

The combined score of +0.23 is weak, indicating a thin edge that can quickly vanish.

Elevated annualized volatility of 48.2% raises the risk of large, unpredictable price swings.

A 5-day horizon may be too short for fundamental strengths to outweigh technical and sentiment headwinds.

Price

6 months · daily candles

Signal contribution

Signed push toward the recommendation, by source.

← sell · buy →
ML model
+0.52
News
−0.10
Technical
−0.40
Fundamentals
+0.30

Agent insights

newsNeutral
conf 55%

Tesla’s Berlin factory is set for a 20% output boost, a positive operational signal. However, heavy bearish options activity ahead of Wednesday’s Q2 earnings reflects significant market caution. The event’s focus on Robotaxi and Optimus updates introduces high uncertainty. As a result, the stock may experience elevated volatility with a slight downward bias in the near term.

technicalBearish
conf 55%

Negative short-term returns (ret_5, ret_21) and a slightly bearish MACD, coupled with price below 50- and 200-day MAs, confirm a downtrend. Low Bollinger %b and RSI 39 suggest oversold conditions that may trigger a short-term bounce, but trend persistence favors continued downside. High volatility (vol_21 0.588) reduces conviction.

Regime downtrend
fundamentalsBullish
conf 60%

Latest quarter shows YoY revenue and earnings growth after a period of declines, indicating potential acceleration. However, sequential trends and margin pressure warrant caution. Without valuation metrics, relative valuation is unclear.

Valuation unclearGrowth accelerating

Scored news

+0.00
30%

Tesla Is Still Down 17% in 2026. Can Wednesday’s Earnings Event Get TSLA Stock Back on Track?

2026-07-20earnings
+0.00
10%

Dow Drops 300 Points, S&P 500 Reverses Gains

2026-07-20macro
+0.00
20%

Tech Faces a Moment of Truth as Earnings Test the Rally

2026-07-20earnings
+0.20
40%

Wall Street Eager For Robotaxi, Optimus News During Tesla Earnings

2026-07-20earnings
−0.10
60%

Tesla Earnings: Investors 'Increasingly Focused' On Robotaxi, Optimus Spending

2026-07-20earnings
+0.00
20%

'Mag 7 Is Dead': Why This Buzzy Term Is Losing Analysts

2026-07-20analyst
+0.00
10%

Equities Mostly Rise Intraday as Chip Stocks Advance

2026-07-20macro
−0.70
60%

Options Traders Bet $550M Against Tesla Ahead of Earnings

2026-07-20earnings
+0.00
10%

5 Founder-Led Companies Built to Innovate and Outperform

2026-07-20other
+0.00
10%

Wall Street Saw Its Strongest Week 1 Earnings in Over 3 Years

2026-07-20macro
+0.00
20%

Stocks Wobble to Kick Off a Big Tech Earnings-Heavy Week

2026-07-20macro
+0.00
30%

Magnificent Seven Dominate S&P 500 Earnings, But That's Changing Dramatically

2026-07-20macro

Fundamentals

FQ 2024-06-30
Metric
Value
YoY
revenue
$25.5B
+2.30%
revenue
$25.2B
+7.85%
revenue
$19.3B
−9.23%
revenue
$22.5B
−11.78%
revenue
$28.1B
+11.57%
revenue
$22.4B
+15.78%
net_income
$1.4B
−48.21%
net_income
$2.2B
+17.27%
net_income
$409M
−70.58%
net_income
$1.2B
−16.29%
net_income
$1.4B
−36.82%
net_income
$477M
+16.63%
eps_diluted
$0.40
−48.72%
eps_diluted
$0.62
+16.98%
eps_diluted
$0.12
−70.73%
eps_diluted
$0.33
−17.50%
eps_diluted
$0.39
−37.10%
eps_diluted
$0.13
+8.33%